To greet the new
year, instead of a backwards look at a dreary 2009, this will revisit
last month’s lively exchange, initiated by Francine McKenna’s provocative post
of December 7, “They Weren’t There: Auditors and the Financial Crisis.” My
response of December 13 is here, and hers of the 14th is here.
Highly compressed,
the gist of our mutual concern is, as Francine put it, “the auditors’ failure
to be a force either before, during, or after the financial crisis.” The depressing explanation, said I, is that “their core product has long since been judged
irrelevant. The standard auditor’s report is an anachronism – having lost any
value it may once have had, except for legally-required compliance.”
Our invitation to a
conversation drew forth an exceptional level of reader interest and a cascade
of comments. They ranged from the acute and perceptive to the callow and
credulous – but all were seriously intended and deserve broader exposure and
responses.
So picking a sample
of some half dozen, and inviting the discussion to continue:
PF
noted to Francine that “the idea has been
floated of having each exchange traded company purchase insurance against the
financial impact of future restatements or fraud, but for that to work you
would merely replace the auditors with the insurance industry, who would need
to do their own “audits” before they would agree to underwrite such large
risks.”
And David
wrote similarly, that, “maybe each firm performing audits should have to put up
a bond that would be available to creditors in the event of malpractice
lawsuits. Let’s say that bond was equal to at least two years of the firm’s
audit revenues. … You could even have an experience rate type of adjustment….”
Sorry – we've been there. If feasible, the idea of
outside sureties would already be in place by now (here). The marketplace
reality is that the insurance industry – which suffered massive losses on its
coverage of the accountants during the savings & loan debacle of the 1980’s
– learned enough to avoid a repetition.
It’s not just that the Big Four tetrapoly fail
the essential tests of insurability, although they do – because of sector concentration,
unpredictability of losses and inability to quantify exposures. It’s also that
if any such “super-audits” actually existed, the auditors would surely be
performing them already. The sad fact, instead, is that the poor profession is
operating today to the best of its unfortunately limited capability.
On user expectations, Robert accurately observed that, “an audit is supposed to provide
reasonable assurance, not absolute. An audit firm has many engagement
teams…some good…some bad. The whole system can’t be vilified because of
isolated events.”
“Vilified” – perhaps not. But it is precisely the
isolated events – highly-consequential and destructive as they can be – that
will bring down another large firm.
On this there are two points: First, because the
accounting profession lacks an effective forum by which to scrutinize and learn
from its failures and short-comings, it has been unable to avoid repeating the
same performance deficiencies from one generation to the next. It's a
failure in historical perspective, to miss the instructive comparisons between Parmalat, say, and Equity Funding – or between Satyam
and ZZZBest.
Second, the community of financial statement users
is unimpressed by the profession’s proclamations of its successes. Virtue is
not preserved by an accumulated preponderance of generally good behavior – rather, it is
dissipated and lost altogether by individually corrosive, culpable acts. For most of their life spans, John Edwards and Tiger Woods were credibly decent – as were Jimmy Cayne and Dick Fuld and even Conrad Black and Bernie Ebbers -- except for certain nasty
instances when they were not.
I had this note from JD: “The auditors were there
and just got it wrong. They will feel the pain from this trying to defend the
lawsuits. Whether they can be successfully sued is another matter. If one or
more big firms fail as a result then so be it. In the long run there are enough
other audit firms who will eventually step up.”
The problem is the last sentence. Under
the large firms' presently dysfunctional model of litigation exposure,
independence constraints, limited capital and concentration of resources and
expertise, it is just not the case that alternative providers might emerge to
replace a failed Big Four firm. That discussion can be expanded at greater
length, and has been, but the only answer is "no way."
Francine had this interesting proposition from TT: “the first firm to focus on quality, and to deploy and
consistently follow standards that enforce quality regardless of other factors
and metrics, will rise above the others. … But the sad fact is right now that
the clients don’t perceive any differences between the firms, and it would take
a significant difference to catch the clients’ attention.”
The standard audit report now being an undifferentiated commodity, TT’s point was answered by Geoff, who wrote that, “From 1933 until now, there hasn’t really
been a evaluation of the core assumptions around audited financials. The
requirements have evolved and become more detailed, stringent, as we go through
the motions of continually fighting the last war. Add to it the
institutionalization of the main players (audit firms, regulators, accounting designation
self-regulatory bodies), and it’s easy to see how we’ve lost the plot.”
To conclude, the widespread inchoate desire for “something
better” resounds in Esa’s plaintive note:
If you know of a better model that allows us to hold
someone responsible for unforeseen future events, I’m all ears but that’s not a
job I want.
A lot of people think the model is relevant though
it certainly has flaws. The SEC, institutional investors, financial analysts,
etc. all think the model requires tweaking but none suggest wholesale changes.
If fact, I haven’t heard anyone propose something
that even comes close to a reasonable alternative that is actually feasible. If
you have ideas on that front, please share them.
That’s an echo of the call from Francine and me. Progress will come neither from the self-interested parties' reticence to “suggest
wholesale changes,” nor their continued pointing of fingers and weapons. Instead, as a first step at
least, let the wide-open conversation continue.
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Reading this, I could hear echoes of Taleb's popular "Black Swan." It's not exactly the same, but auditors are good at analyzing and staving off risk eminating from the fat section of companies/transactions that fall in the middle of the bell curve. Their problem is the big, heavily consequential outlier.
Posted by: J.D. Kern | January 04, 2010 at 12:38 PM
JDK -- Thanks and amen. Taleb's work figures importantly in my MBA-level course in risk management -- where an important point is that it is precisely the "big, heavily consequential" events that really make a difference in our lives. For the Big Four, those would be the rare but devastating lawsuits or regulatory proceedings -- those with potential to blow up the entire structure.
Posted by: Jim | January 04, 2010 at 12:50 PM
The biggest and most obvious problem has never been addressed which is the auditors work for management. The auditors must follow strict standards, but when exercising judgment the auditors will generally side with management. As they say, "we would not object" to such and such a treatment. It gives the auditors an out. We did not bless that treatment, but it was reasonable.
The best idea I have heard is the the auditors are selected by the stock exchange where the company is listed and the auditors report to the stock exchange. Maybe the exchanges could do a better job policing the auditors, the SEC surely hasn't done a good job.
Posted by: Rich | January 05, 2010 at 07:11 PM
Here are five things to focus on during recession : Clean up your balance sheet, Think ahead, Consider a career shift, Remember that everything is cyclical,Develop a skills portfolio to go.
Posted by: Chicago bankruptcy lawyer | October 26, 2010 at 12:26 AM